Andrew Yang
The War on Normal People
ISBN: 978-0-316-41424-1
We’re living in extraordinary times. Job markets are rapidly shifting, and most in the political class don’t seem to understand the changes ordinary people face with regards to technology. The “Internet is a Series of Tubes” meme still accurately portrays the knowledge set of most who govern the United States at the moment. With the rise of machine learning, artificial intelligence, and automation as a method of cost-cutting, millions of jobs are at risk of disappearing over the next generation. Stopping the progress of technology isn’t the answer, but what is?
Presidential candidate and entrepreneur Andrew Yang wrote The War on Normal People to lay out the situation we might be facing over the next 20 years, and his proposals to counteract the job loss caused by widespread automation. I picked up a copy of the book at the Monetery conference this past spring before Yang presented. Unfortunately, both listening to his presentation and reading the book led to more questions than answers. I’m going to focus this review on the book, as his methods to pay for the Universal Basic Income program changed slightly between the book and the presentation. Honestly, there were enough position changes over the course of the book itself to fill up this review.
Most people can agree that automation is coming – the question is not if, but when. Yang takes the position that massive job losses are coming much sooner than later, and that the economy won’t recover the way it did after the Industrial Revolution in the 1800s forced people from the farm to factories, and the birth of the service economy in the second half of the 20th century forced people from the factories to positions in front of computers and cash registers. Some people are still reeling from the latter of the two in many parts of the United States, where factory jobs have disappeared and will never come back. Automation will disproportionately disrupt those at the bottom of the wage ladder, as most of those jobs will be replaced with artificial intelligence, robots, and self-serve kiosks – none of whom need to be paid or require sick days.
So, what do we do? Yang’s proposal is based on the concept of Universal Basic Income, where the government pays you a set amount each month just for existing. Proponents of Universal Basic Income point to the Alaska Permanent Fund, which pays residents of Alaska a dividend each year based on oil revenues. In the book, Yang proposes to fund Universal Basic Income with a value-added tax on the consumption of goods and services – basically, a fancy national sales tax. He also tries to thread the needle by saying that the Universal Basic Income program would eliminate the need for most welfare programs. Unfortunately, his proposals show an incredible naivete about the way government works, and comes off as another of many ways candidates on the left are dangling money in front of voters to gain their support. In the long run, any tax on consumption will end up hurting people on the lower half of the income spectrum the most – the cost of goods and services will increase to match the tax increase. He also talks about his support for single-payer healthcare which, like his Universal Basic Income proposal, will raise taxes on and hurt the middle class the most. Sure, health insurance coverage wouldn’t come out of your $1000 each month, but where does the money come from to pay for it without raising taxes or cutting programs? A free lunch for you is paid by someone else.
I appreciate that Yang took the time to actually think through his proposals, but he really needs to think a bit harder. I just don’t believe he understands the processes involved to move this type of legislation through the legislative branch, and his party doesn’t have the numbers or the political capital to make it happen, as Obama used nearly all of it to push the Affordable Care Act through a decade ago. Programs like this never stop at a certain amount. Yang proposes $1000 per month, but the next candidate to come along would propose $2000 per month, and introduce another tax to pay for that. It’s a slippery slope, and not the correct answer to the problems we’re facing. For a guy who claims “I’m no fan of big government,” (page 203) it seems suspicious and poorly thought out that his main talking points are programs that will increase the size of government.
Overall, 6/10, would recommend only as a quick read to understand Andrew Yang’s policy proposals before caucus and primary season begins. While not as reckless as other candidates’ platforms, it still lacks the understanding of government needed to prove the author is truly ready to become president.